By : Lieutenant General (Ret) Soedibyo, Political and Security Observer
Marawi is the capital City of the State/Province of Mindanao del Sur. The Inhabitant of this City is less than one million. This City is located on the shore of the Lake of Lanao in Southern part of Mindanao. Geographically Marawi is located on a hilly terrain. Built by the Spanish but this City has likely developed as a City with the majority of its inhabitant are Moslem and influenced by the radical Moslem called Maute Group.
The Maute group also known as the Islamic State of Lanao, is a radical Islamist group composed of former Moro Islamic Liberation Front guerrillas and some foreign fighters led by Abdullah Maute, the alleged founder of a Dawlah Islamiya, or Islamic state based in Lanao del Sur, Mindanao, Philippines. The group was known in a military clash with Philippine Army troops in February 2016 that ended with the capture of their headquarters in Butig, Lanao del Sur. There are reports that Omar Maute, Abdullah's brother, was killed in that clash. There are also reports to the contrary, claiming that he escaped before the camp was overrun and is still alive; video footage found on a cellphone captured by Philippine government troops during the Marawi crisis indicates this to be true. Since then the group, which a Philippine Army brigade commander characterized as terrorist, has been conducting a protection racket in the remote settlements of Butig (Wilke).
Another strong radical Moslem which is also influencing in Marawi is the Group of Abu Sayyaf under its leader of Isnilon Hapilon which has close cooperation with the Maute Group and last but not least were also the foreign radical Moslem Militia coming from a number of foreign countries such as Indonesia. All those three elements are definitely leaning to ISIS in Syria.
In general the City of Marawi has been likely become the Strategic Point of Meeting among the local radical Moslem element and the radical Moslem of militia coming from other countries including Indonesia.
On early May 2017 The Philippines Army got the report that Isnilon Hapilon was in the City of Marawi. On May 23, 2017 the combined operation of the Philippine army and the Police was conducted and the military raid to Marawi wishing to capture Isnilon Hapilon was launched. However unluckily the intelligent report was not accurate. Apparently the presence of Isnilon Hapilon in Marawi was protected strongly by the armed members of Abu Sayyaf units and the Philippine Army and The Police conducting the military raid to be apparently encountered by the strong defensive attacked of the radical militia Moslem of the Abu Sayyaf group and the capture of Isnilon Hapilon was likely failure.
The situation was even becoming worse, the battle between the Philippines Army supported by the Police against the Moslem radical unit became serious battle when the Maute came and surrounded the City of Marawi. More than two week the battle of Marawi went on in June 12, 2017 but definitely the Maute was still in the City and definitely the Government Forces had not controlled totally te City of Marawi. The City of Marawi was apparently full of tunnels, strongholds, and tactical position occupied by the Maute armed unit, Abu Sayyaf armed units and foreign militia, attacking the Government Forces.
President Duarte of the Philippines said Abu Bakar Bhagdadi the leader of ISIS in Syria had been apparently commanding the Maute and all the armed radical Moslem in Marawi to conduct the counter attack against the Pilippines army. During those two weeks of the battle thirteen members of the Philippines Marine Corr died and tens of the radical Moslem were shot.
A number of the US Special Force advicers who are assigned in the Philippines had come to Marawi supporting the Goverment Army units in Marawi. President Duete said they were in the Philippines in the framework of the Military Cooperation between the US and the Philippines, but not for joining the battle of Marawi.
It was likely the Philippines Government were surprised to the unpredicted situation to have developed in the city of Marawi and affecting the battle of Marawi had been going on unsuccessfully for the Government Forces :
As the Point of the Strategic Coordination Meeting among the Maute and Abu Syaaf armed Unit and Foreign Militia Marawi has become the battle infra structure of the Radical Moslem in Marawi. The City of Marawi is apparently full of the defense Infra structure and Stronghold for the defensive tactical position. From this position the Maute and other radical Moslem launched the military attack against the Government forces. Accordingly though the Government Forces are occupying almost 80 % of Marawi City but apparently the battle in the City are still going on gigantically.
The firm strategic coordination among Maute Group, Abu Syayaf and the Foreign Militia have been firm enough and all this tactical situation is controlled and commanded by Abu Bakar Al Bhagdadi the highest leader of ISIS in Syria. The information on the death of Abu Bakar Al Bhagdadi in Syria is likely not true.
Definitely the aftivity of Maute, Abu Syaaf and the Foreign Militia likely hass constituted a part of ISIS World Strategy which is commanded and controlled by ISIS from Syria.Definitely they have also modern communication system in their activities.
The Philippines Government did not condemn the support given by the US Special Force advisers to the Philippines in Marawi though President Duarte rejected the news on the presence of the US Forces in Marawi. It means President Duarte is likely of the position to open any foreign military support to cope with the Marawi Crisis.
It is likely President Duerte in the opinion that the military threat of the radical Moslem in Marawi is strong enough and Foreign Military Support is needed. And President Duarte also realized being the radical Moslem such as Moro National Liberation Front those group who are combating in Marawi are also tough warriors. Of course the Armed Forces of the Government of The Republic of the Philippines are also the courageous combatants, though foreign military support are also appreciated.
Impact to ASEAN Countries
The Philippines Government is starting to call the military cooperation among the Philippines, Malaysia and Indonesia to combat te radical Moslem threat in Marawi. Unfortunately the turmoil situation in Qatar has apparently attracted the Countries in South East Asia, included Indonesia to give its attention to Qatar problem. However te Government of Indonesia should definitely wise enough to implement the emergency of the diplomatic activities of the Foreign Ministry who definitely put ASEAN problem is the main diplomatic challenge that should be solved.
Also unfortunately there was no any serious response from the Defense Ministry and TNI Hq to the Government of the Philippines calling to establish the Combined Military Campaign among the Philippines, Malaysia and Indonesia to combat the Maute beside of sending the Navy ship to the Sea closing to Marawi.
There is no news what is the analysis made by the Indonesian Embassy in Manila and its suggestion according to the request of the Government of the Republic of the Philippines for possible Combine Operation among the ASEAN countries to solve the Marawi Crisis.
And also unfortunately there has no any Combined Intelligent Analysis made among the ASEAN military leaders to have been made about the Impact of the battle of Marawi to the emergence of the Radical Moslem Base in the Middle of ASEAN Countries. In 1975 Just as the historical memory ASEAN Intelligent Organization were continuously together discussed what is the development of South Vietnam and the possible impact to ASEAN countries. When at last South Vietnam, fell to the Commnist it was not so surprised for the ASEAN countries. The South Vietnam will definitely fall tyo the communist and the only question was when will it happen. Will Marawi will have story similar to South Vietnam ?
The Philippines is also likely thinking of that will Marawi to be totally controlled by the radical Moslem. Marawi City could become the Centre of the Drug Trade and Distribution in the Middle of ASEAN Countries could surprisingly emerge. ISIS is busy with the illegal oil trade in Syria but it is definitely only drug is the only merchandise available and good for marketing in South East Asia.
President Duerte of the Philippines is likely having expressed his attitude saying that though the development of Marawi City is the domestic problem of the Republic of the Philippines but the impact of the development of this City definitely could affect the ASSEAN Countries.
ASEAN has been successful in the cooperation in the field of social and economic but now ASE AN should prove to be also good for the defense and security cooperation. ASEAN will not interfere the domestic situation of the Philippines but President Duerter is indicating his idea that it is the time for the Military Cooperation of among ASEAN countries to cope with the situation of Marawi should be conducted by the ASEAN Countries. The Military society knows exactly ASAN organization is not for the military purpose, but the Military leaders are also smart in diplomatic relation. The Military leaders of ASEAN could meet together at any time without wearing the ASEAN political umbrella. Such as the politician they could meet any time to discuss the democracy without limit.
Conclusion
The Conclusion of this article are the Marawi crisis tend to indicate becoming worse in term of the Government of The Republic of the Philippines to defend her Unity and for the Democratic Countries of SASEAN to defend its democratic territory if ISIS to be successful to establish Marawi as the political and military base of ISIS power in South East Asia.
The Combined Intelligent Estimate among the ASEAN Countries on the Development and Its Impact of the Marawi Situation is important to be made. The struggle of of Maute group has likely the potential capability for the long lasting threat of the religious radicalism in South East Asia, if the significant military blow is not made.The Intelligent view will decide whether Marawi Crisis to be the actual danger or not for the ASEAN countries.
The Combined Military Operation to cope with the radical Moslem Threat in Marawi should be made otherwise it will become the unstopped threat to ASEAN Countries. This is not definitely the easy challenge to be solved by the ASEAN countries.
Indonesia as the biggest Moslem Country in ASEAN could take the initiative to solve the situation of Marawi to be discussed among the military leaders of the Philippines, Malaysia and Indonesia.
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