The Development of The Situation of Marawi and Its Possible Impact to ASEAN Countries

 

By : Lieutenant General (Ret) Soedibyo,  Political and Security Observer

Marawi is the capital City of the State/Province  of Mindanao del Sur. The Inhabitant of this City is less than one million. This City is located on the shore of the  Lake of Lanao in Southern part of Mindanao. Geographically   Marawi is  located on a hilly terrain. Built  by  the Spanish but  this City has likely developed as a City with the majority of its inhabitant  are Moslem  and influenced by the radical Moslem called Maute Group.

The Maute group also known as the Islamic  State of Lanao, is a radical Islamist group composed of former Moro Islamic Liberation Front guerrillas and some foreign fighters led by Abdullah Maute, the alleged founder of a Dawlah Islamiya, or Islamic state based in Lanao del Sur, Mindanao, Philippines. The group was known  in a military  clash with Philippine Army troops in February 2016 that ended with the capture of their headquarters in Butig, Lanao del Sur. There are reports that Omar Maute, Abdullah's brother, was killed in that clash. There are also reports to the contrary, claiming that he escaped before the camp was overrun and is still alive; video footage found on a cellphone captured by Philippine government troops during the Marawi crisis indicates this to be true. Since then the group, which a Philippine Army brigade commander characterized as terrorist, has been conducting a protection racket in the remote settlements of Butig (Wilke).

Another strong radical Moslem which is also influencing in Marawi is the Group of Abu Sayyaf under its leader of Isnilon Hapilon which has close cooperation with the Maute Group and last but not least were also the foreign radical Moslem Militia coming from a number of foreign countries such as Indonesia. All those three elements are definitely leaning to ISIS in Syria.

In general  the City of Marawi has been likely become the  Strategic Point of Meeting among the local radical Moslem element and the radical Moslem of militia coming  from other countries including Indonesia.

On early May 2017 The Philippines Army got the report  that Isnilon Hapilon was in the City of Marawi. On  May 23, 2017 the combined operation of the  Philippine  army  and the Police was conducted and the military raid to Marawi wishing to capture Isnilon Hapilon was launched. However unluckily the intelligent report was not accurate. Apparently the presence of Isnilon Hapilon in Marawi  was  protected  strongly  by  the armed members of Abu Sayyaf units and the Philippine Army and The Police conducting the military raid to be apparently encountered  by the strong defensive  attacked of the radical militia Moslem of the Abu Sayyaf group and the capture of Isnilon  Hapilon was likely failure.

The situation was even becoming worse, the battle  between the Philippines Army supported  by  the Police against the Moslem radical unit  became serious battle when  the Maute came and  surrounded the City of Marawi.  More than  two week the battle of Marawi  went on in June 12, 2017   but definitely the Maute was still in the City and definitely the Government Forces had not controlled totally te City of Marawi. The City of Marawi was apparently full of tunnels, strongholds, and tactical position  occupied by the Maute armed unit, Abu Sayyaf armed units and foreign militia, attacking the Government Forces.

President Duarte of the Philippines said Abu Bakar Bhagdadi the leader of ISIS  in Syria had been apparently commanding the Maute and all the armed radical Moslem in Marawi to conduct the counter attack against the Pilippines army. During those  two weeks of the battle thirteen members of the Philippines Marine Corr died and tens of the radical Moslem were shot.

A number of the US Special Force advicers who are  assigned  in  the Philippines had come  to Marawi  supporting the Goverment Army units in Marawi. President Duete said they were in the Philippines in the framework of the Military Cooperation between the US and the Philippines, but not for joining the battle of Marawi.

It was likely  the Philippines Government were surprised  to the unpredicted situation to have developed  in the  city  of  Marawi  and affecting the battle of Marawi had been going on unsuccessfully for the Government Forces :

As the Point of the  Strategic Coordination   Meeting  among   the Maute and Abu Syaaf armed Unit and Foreign Militia  Marawi has  become  the battle infra structure of the Radical Moslem   in  Marawi.  The City of Marawi is apparently full of  the defense  Infra structure   and  Stronghold  for the  defensive tactical position. From this position the Maute and other radical Moslem launched  the military attack against the Government forces. Accordingly though the Government  Forces  are occupying almost 80 % of Marawi  City   but apparently the battle in the City are still going on gigantically.

The firm strategic coordination  among Maute Group, Abu Syayaf and the Foreign Militia have been firm enough  and all this tactical situation is controlled and commanded  by Abu Bakar Al Bhagdadi the highest leader of ISIS in Syria. The information on the death of Abu Bakar Al Bhagdadi in Syria  is likely not true.

Definitely the aftivity of Maute, Abu Syaaf and the Foreign Militia  likely hass constituted a part of ISIS World Strategy which is  commanded and controlled by ISIS  from Syria.Definitely they have also modern communication system in their activities.

The Philippines Government did not condemn the support  given by the US Special Force advisers to the  Philippines in  Marawi though President Duarte rejected the news on the presence of the US Forces in Marawi. It means President Duarte is likely of the position to open any foreign military support to cope with the Marawi Crisis.

It is likely President Duerte in the opinion that the military threat of the  radical Moslem in Marawi is strong enough and Foreign Military Support is needed. And President Duarte also realized being the radical Moslem such as Moro National Liberation Front those  group  who  are  combating in Marawi are also tough warriors. Of course the Armed Forces  of the Government of The Republic of the Philippines are also the courageous  combatants, though foreign military support are also appreciated.

Impact to ASEAN Countries

 

The Philippines Government is starting to call the military cooperation  among the Philippines, Malaysia and Indonesia to combat te radical Moslem threat  in Marawi.   Unfortunately the turmoil situation in Qatar has apparently attracted the Countries in South East Asia, included Indonesia to give its attention to Qatar problem. However te Government of Indonesia should definitely wise enough to implement the emergency of the diplomatic activities of the  Foreign Ministry who definitely put ASEAN problem is the main diplomatic challenge that should be solved.

Also unfortunately there was no any serious response from the Defense Ministry and TNI Hq  to the Government of  the Philippines calling  to establish the Combined Military Campaign among the Philippines, Malaysia and Indonesia  to combat the Maute beside of sending the Navy ship to the Sea closing to Marawi.

There is no news what is the analysis made by the Indonesian Embassy    in Manila and  its suggestion according  to the request of the Government of the Republic of the  Philippines for possible Combine Operation among the ASEAN countries to solve the Marawi Crisis.

And also unfortunately there has no any Combined Intelligent Analysis made among the ASEAN military leaders to  have been made about the Impact of the battle of  Marawi   to the emergence of the Radical Moslem  Base  in the Middle of ASEAN Countries.  In 1975  Just as the historical memory ASEAN Intelligent Organization were continuously  together discussed what is the development of South Vietnam and the possible impact to ASEAN countries. When at last South Vietnam, fell to the Commnist it was not so  surprised for  the ASEAN countries. The South Vietnam will definitely fall tyo the communist and the only question was when will it  happen. Will Marawi will have story  similar to South Vietnam ?

The Philippines is also likely thinking  of  that will Marawi  to be totally controlled by the radical  Moslem.  Marawi City could become  the Centre  of  the Drug Trade and Distribution in  the Middle of ASEAN Countries  could surprisingly  emerge. ISIS is busy with the illegal oil trade in Syria but it is definitely  only  drug is the only merchandise available and good for marketing in South East Asia.

President Duerte of the Philippines is likely  having expressed  his attitude saying that though  the development of Marawi City  is the domestic problem of  the Republic of the Philippines but the impact  of the development of this City definitely could affect the ASSEAN Countries.

ASEAN has been successful in the cooperation in the field of social and economic   but  now ASE AN should prove   to be  also good for the  defense and security cooperation. ASEAN  will not interfere the  domestic situation of the Philippines  but President Duerter is indicating  his idea   that it is the time for the Military  Cooperation  of among ASEAN countries to cope with the situation of Marawi  should  be conducted by the ASEAN Countries. The Military society knows exactly ASAN organization is not for the military purpose, but the Military leaders are also smart  in diplomatic relation. The Military leaders of ASEAN could meet  together  at any time without wearing the ASEAN political umbrella. Such as the politician they could meet any time to  discuss the democracy without limit.

Conclusion

The Conclusion of this article are the Marawi crisis tend to indicate becoming worse in term of the Government of The  Republic of the  Philippines to defend her Unity and  for the Democratic Countries of SASEAN to defend its democratic territory  if  ISIS to be successful  to  establish  Marawi  as  the political and military base of ISIS power in South East Asia.

The Combined Intelligent Estimate among the ASEAN Countries on the Development and Its Impact of the Marawi Situation is important to be made. The struggle of of Maute group has likely the potential capability for the  long lasting threat of the religious radicalism in South East Asia, if the significant military blow is not made.The Intelligent view will decide whether Marawi Crisis to be the actual danger or not for the ASEAN countries.

The Combined Military Operation to cope with the radical Moslem Threat in Marawi should be made otherwise it will become the unstopped threat to ASEAN Countries. This is not definitely the easy challenge to be solved by the ASEAN countries.

Indonesia as the biggest Moslem Country in ASEAN could take the initiative to solve the situation of Marawi to be discussed among the military leaders of the Philippines, Malaysia and Indonesia.

BERITA TERKAIT

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