By : Otjih Sewandarijatun, Political and Security Observer

The political and security situation of Papua influenced by the political party activities and the masses as it is in other parts of the country to have been reported good and stable. There is no report concerning the vulnerable situation in term of social and economic   affairs that could develop dangerously in Papua. However the political tension provoked by the issue on referendum organized by The ULMWP (The United Liberation Movement of West Papua) and the NCWP (The National Committee of West Papua) are potential to explode.

The impact of the situation of the 71th session of the U N General Assembly in the end of September 2016 has been also calm and quiet. No significant impact on political and security situation has been reported. However the uncertain situation concerning the solution of the issue of Referendum is still hanging on. The NGO and the group of people supporting the ULMWP and NCWP are likely waiting for the further instruction of the Central leadership of ULMWP and NCWP  in line with the development in the 71th session UN General Assembly.

The only information reported by the Press  concerning the 71th session UN General Assembly has been the happy feeling of Beny Wenda, the Speaker of the United Liberation Movement for the West Papua  (ULMWP) concerning the support of  seven  Pacific countries to raise the issue on the Human Rights Abuses in Papua in the 71th session of the UN General Assembly. The objective of the ULMWP to raise the Human Right Abuse by the Security  Apparatus of the Government of Indonesia is to expose that The Republic of Indonesia is a Colonialist country and the Papuan is to live under the pressure of colonial power. The final goal is demanding the UN apply the Referendum of Papua in order the Papuan to decide their future.

There is strong indication the political atmosphere of strong opposition demanding for the Referendum of Papua to become the potential threat to the political stability of Papua. It is indicating the demonstration and the mass action demanding for the Referendum of Papua is potential to explode and designed as the strategic course of action by the UILMWP (United Liberation Movement for  West Papua) and NCWP (National Committee of West Papua) to disturb Papua significantly. Consequently the impact on the security stability will be felt significantly.

Of course this trend of development should be watched seriously at any time. It is important for the Government to evaluate the situation continuously to conclude what will be the political and security prediction  in the coming weeks in Papua  affected by  the continuous mass action in various parts of Papua.

The Observation

As evaluated regularly the situation of  the national economic life has been relatively stable. It is also concluded that the economic situation regionally to be normal, especially in  Papua  being the most difficult location of the country, there is also no report concerning any difficulty in the economic situation of both  the Province of Papua and the Province of West Papua.

In the last two weeks the activities of student and NGO to launch aggressive demonstration to strengthen the demand of  the ULMWP  to the UN General Assembly in order to response their proposal for the Referendum of Papua apparently  had been strongly controlled by the Security Units, not any sensitive situation reported to happen. However the alertness of the Security units has to be conducted continuously to prevent the unexpected security disturbances to take place. As reported from London, Beny Wenda, the Speaker of the ULMWP on October 1, 2016 had written an open letters released to the media, that on behalf of the Papuan People Beny Wenda conveyed his  special   gratitude to all the Presidents, Prime Ministers and Representatives of the  seven Pacific Countries,  (Marshall Islands, Nauru, Palau, Solomon Islands, Tonga, Tuvalu and Vanuatu ) who explicitly  expressed  their support to the demand of the Papuan to the UN in order to take the necessary action to cope with the Human Rights abuse done by the Government of Indonesia in Papua. This situation was very important to Beny Wenda who has been failure   in his effort to become the full member of MSG  (the Melanesian Spearhead Group) in MSG meeting in Solomon last month. 

In the UN General Assembly, ULMWP was considered getting support of seven Pacific countries and especially the Representative of Solomon demanded the UN to give response to the demand of Papua to implement the Referendum of Papua. However  according to the Indonesian ambassador to the UN  actually the support of seven Pacific countries  in the 71 UN General Assembly is meaningless, because actually  there are  193 states of around the world to be recorded as the  members  of the UN.

Beside of that, the Pacific countries are mainly influenced  by the strong Western countries namely the US, France, Britain, Australia and New Zealand, as the countries who have strong diplomatic relations with Indonesia, so the sport on the demand on Referendum of Papua is likely impossible. The official attitude of the Pacific Countries to be presence in the 71th UN General Assembly are likely depended  much to the will of the Western countries the former colonial power of the Pacific.

The strong diplomatic  performance  of Indonesia is also believed firm enough to counter the ULMWP effort. Indonesia has the good diplomatic relations with the countries in the Pacific and most of the countries of the Pacific believed Indonesia is  one of the potential country to become the  strong economic power in South East Asia. Bilaterally and regionally Indonesia is potential to become strong economic partner for the Pacific countries.

Politically Indonesia was not a former colonial power so it is expected most of Pacific countries to believe Indonesia is not the colonial power as described by the ULMWP and NCWP. It is believed Indonesia historically is recognized as the national country strongly against the imperialism.

Accordingly there is strong hope that many Papuan leaders who are supporting the ULMWP will realize that it is impossible for the Papuan to get support from the UN to get the Referendum of Papua to decide her future. Those active  groups of Papuan leaders are expected to conclude that to be a part of the independent country of Indonesia is the only pertinent choice for the Papuan. On the contrary Indonesia has to approve that living within the independent country of Indonesia is not bad at all. Under the Pancasila Philosophy and based on the Indonesian Constitution of 1945, the Papuan will definitely live proudly, Indonesia philosophically  respect the religion, human relation among nations, living cooperatively, democracy and social justice.

Constitutionally the ending goal of the Indonesian independence is the establishment of : To build the smart Nation of Indonesia, including Papua,   with  strong physically and mentally characters; To protect strongly all the Interest of the Indonesian Nation against all threat; To joint establishing the Peace, Justice and  respecting Human Rights in the World.

In accordingly  the present Government of Indonesia  is challenged seriously  to be able  to convinced the Papuan that now is the time for the Papuan to abolish their hostile feeling against the Indonesian and together as the Indonesian nations to develop The Great Indonesia as our country and nations included Papua.

Conclusion.

The situation of Papua is predicted fully under control and the people could live properly. The result of the 71th  Session of the UN General Assembly is expected to provoke various Papuan die heart to change their mind concluding that joining the Republic of Indonesia is the only pertinent choice for the Papuan. Expecting the UN approval for the Referendum of Papua is likely impossible.

The Government is again to be reminded to think seriously in this available moment and chance,  in order to make effort seriously to fulfill her promise to the Papuan people.

It will be the wisest action  of the Government and the House of Representatives of Republic of Indonesia to re-design  the National Legislative Program, so that the Bill on the Special  Regional Autonomy  of Papua could be finished this year.